AQR analyses the effects of different local factors in the spread of COVID-19 in the Catalan territory
  • Date: 22/06/2020

    In short letters that will be published over the next few days, the results of the effects of population density, weather conditions, socioeconomic situation, among others, are summarized.

    Link to AQR COVID-19 dedicated web page:

    A summary of the technical details for obtaining the results is provided in this Methodological Note.

    Testing incidence (AQR COVID-19 / #11)
    ENG   CAT   CAST
    The number of declared infected people is the result of the incidence of testing over population and of the incidence of positive cases over testing. These components must be studied individually in order to have a clear picture of the COVID-19 actual spread and of the policies driving its handling.

    Impact on the tourism (AQR COVID-19 / #10)
    ENG   CAT   CAST
    The main macro figures (turnover, GDP and full-time equivalent employees) will be affected with a decrease of approximately 20% due to the impact of the COVID-19 crisis in tourist activity on the Catalan economy.

    Differences between rural and urban areas (AQR COVID-19 / #9)
    ENG   CAT   CAST

    Raw differences between rural and urban areas hide a much more complex reality than those shown by the comparison of gross incidence rates.

    Effect of income per capita (AQR COVID-19 / #8)
    ENG   CAT   CAST
    COVID-19 has had a greater spread in Catalan municipalities with medium-high income levels, probably due to its greater economic activity and a lower incidence of unemployment.

    Contagion rate evolution: municipalities and BHA (AQR COVID-19 / #7)
    ENG   CAT   CAST
    The approximation of the R0 rate at the level of Basic Health Areas (BHA) and municipalities of Catalonia allows a detailed analysis of the severity and dynamics of the impact of COVID-19 in Catalonia, helping to detect areas where the epidemic has reduced the spread.

    Contagion rate evolution (AQR COVID-19 / #6)
    ENG   CAT   CAST
    The severity and dynamics of the impact of COVID-19 in Catalonia has changed over time, and a measure that summarizes these characteristics is the calculation of the rate of spread of the epidemic (using two sources of statistical information).

    Spatio-temporal evolution (AQR COVID-19 / #5)
    ENG   CAT   CAST

    The impact of COVID-19 in Catalonia is characterized by its heterogeneity throughout the territory, with different patterns of dynamic evolution and degrees of persistence of the infection rate.

    Effect of air pollution (AQR COVID-19 / #4)
    ENG   CAT   CAST
    Higher levels of air pollution during the most intense spread pase of the disease could have eased the propagation of COVID-19 along the Catalan territory.

    Effect of socioeconomic situation (AQR COVID-19 / #3)
    ENG   CAT   CAST

    A high degree of socioeconomic deprivation could have favored the high case rates of COVID-19 in the territories most affected by the disease.

    Effect of meteorological conditions (AQR COVID-19 / #2)
    ENG   CAT   CAST
    There is a negative association between meteorological factors and the spread of COVID-19 in BHA during the period of exponential growth of the disease in Catalonia.

    Effect of population density (AQR COVID-19 / #1)
    ENG   CAT   CAST

    Based on the evidence from the most intense COVID-19 spread phase, the deconfinement should take into account the population density of each territory.

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