Publications

Claveria, O.; Monte, E.; Torra, S.
  • Year: 2016
    Modelling cross-dependencies between Spain's regional tourism markets with an extension of the Gaussian process regression model. SERIEs, 7 (3), 341-357.
    DOI: 10.1007/s13209-016-0144-7
    Abstract: 

    This study presents an extension of the Gaussian process regression model for multiple-input multiple-output forecasting. This approach allows modelling the cross-dependencies between a given set of input variables and generating a vectorial prediction. Making use of the existing correlations in international tourism demand to all seventeen regions of Spain, the performance of the proposed model is assessed in a multiple-step-ahead forecasting comparison. The results of the experiment in a multivariate setting show that the Gaussian process regression model significantly improves the forecasting accuracy of a multi-layer perceptron neural network used as a benchmark. The results reveal that incorporating the connections between different markets in the modelling process may prove very useful to refine predictions at a regional level.
    http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13209-016-0144-7