Foundations of the Philosophy of Science

This course will study recent as well as traditional philosophical analyses of probability and of causality, as well as the connections between them. Probabilities and probabilistic analysis play a central role in almost all modern sciences, often in theoretical as well as experimental or observational contexts. So it is a curious fact that there is no more basic agreement on what probabilities are (what probability claims mean, their truth conditions, how they can be tested, and so forth) now than there was 50 or 100 years ago. Similar remarks could be made about causality. We will study the traditional theories of probability and of causation, to get an overview of their strengths and weaknesses and how well they accord with our uses of these notions in everyday life and in the sciences. With the logical terrain under control, we will go on to look at newer issues and analyses by authors such as Alan Hájek, David Lewis, Elliott Sober, Michael Strevens and others.

Language: lectures, class discussion and readings will be in English. Students wishing to supplement their readings with works in Spanish, Catalan or other languages should consult the instructor first.