Macroeconomic forecasts and estimations


At the group we count with experts on economic forecast and estimations. We make them for “La Caixa”, la Cambra de Comerç de Barcelona, l’Institut d’Estadística de Catalunya and el Departament d’Economia, Fianances i Planificació de la Generalitat de Catalunya and el Gobern Balear.

These kind of works help to the agents to make decisions about economic measures, drawing up budgets, and they give information to the analysts, businessmen, etc.

Next we present a selection of agreements by means of with which carry out works related to the forecast and to the estimations. The concrete references of some works about the subject are included too:

·         Output potencial i output gap de les Illes Balears. Valoració de les metodologies existents i primers resultats. Informe nre. 22. Grup d’Anàlisi Quantitativa Regional. Artís, M.; Suriñach, J.; Ramos, R. Agreement with la Conselleria d’Hisenda i Pressuposts del Govern Balear.

·         Model economètric per a les Illes Balears. Metodologia i prediccions pels anys 2000 i 2001 (Econometric model for the Balears islands. Methodology and forecasts for the years 2000 and 2001). M. Clar, J.R. García, E. Pons, R. Ramos, J. Suriñach. Agreement with la Conselleria d’Hisenda i Pressuposts del Govern Balear.

·         Estimació de magnituds econòmiques als països de la Zona Euro (Estimation of economic magnitudes for the Euro zone countries). M. Artís, J. Suriñach, A. Sansó, E. López-Bazo, M. Clar, R. Ramos, E. Pons, E. Vayá, R. Moreno, J. Ll. Carrión. Agreement with La Caixa d’Estalvis i Pensions de Barcelona “La Caixa”.

·         Previsions econòmiques dels països de la Zona Euro (Economic forecasts for the Euro Zone Countries). M. Artís, M. Clar, R. Ramos, A. Sansó i J. Suriñach. Agreement with la Caixa d’Estalvis i Pensions de Barcelona, “La Caixa”. DOCT 00R11.

·         Metodologia per l’anàlisi de les previsions econòmiques en l’àmbit regional: Una aplicació al cas de Catalunya (Methodology for the economic forecasts analysis in the regional field: an application for the case of the Catalonia). M. Artís, M. Clar, T. Del Barrio, J. R. García, A. Sansó i J. Suriñach. Estudis Econòmics, 3. Published by Departament d’Economia i Finances de la Generalitat de Catalunya, 1997.

·         Estimació a mig i curt termini de l’activitat económica a Catalunya (Estimation of Catalan economic activities in medium and short term). M. Artís, J. Suriñach, E. López-Bazo, A. Sansó, M. Clar, R. Ramos, T del Barrio, E. Pons, E. Vayá, R. Moreno, J. R. García, C. Florit. Agreement with La Cambra Oficial de Comerç, Indústria i Navegació de Barcelona, 1995-2000.

·         Previsions sobre l’economia catalana al 1996 segons escenaris nacionals de referència (Catalan economy forecasts in 1996 according to nationals scenes reference). M. Artís, J. Suriñach, T del Barrio, M. Clar, E. López-Bazo, J. Pons, A. Sansó. Agreement with el Departament d’Economia i Finances de la Generalitat de Catalunya, 1995.

AQR Group, takes part in the Network IGIER-BOCCONI (European Forecasting Network). Two reports will be produced each year by the Network, focused on an explicit euro-area-wide approach. These reports include the following parts:

  • A detailed analysis of the economic situation and outlook, including quantitative forecasts.
  • An examination of policy issues in key areas
  • Thematic analyses, focusing on euro-area economic characteristics (e.g. euro-area growth potential, investment decisions, labour markets, financial markets etc.).

 

The firsts reports are the followings:

 

·         EFN Report on the Euro-Area Outlook 2006-2007 (Winter 2005). Report elaborated by the European Forecasting Network. Agreement with the European Comission, EFN project.

·         EFN Report on the Euro-Area Outlook, 2005-2006(autum 2005). DOCT 03C18. Report elaborated by the European Forecasting Network. Agreement with the European Comission, EFN project.

·         EFN Report on the Euro-Area Outlook, 2005-2006 (spring 2005). DOCT 03C18. Report elaborated by the European Forecasting Network. Agreement with the European Comission, EFN project.

·         EFN Report on the Euro-Area Outlook. Autum 2005-2006 (winter 2004). DOCT 03C18. Report elaborated by the European Forecasting Network. Agreement with the European Comission, EFN project.

·         EFN Report on the Euro-Area Outlook. Autum 2003. DOCT 03C18. Report elaborated by the European Forecasting Network. Agreement with the European Comission, EFN project.

·         EFN Report on the Euro-Area Outlook. Spring 2003. DOCT 03C10. Report elaborated by the European Forecasting Network. Agreement with the European Comission, EFN project.

·         The spatial distribution of economic activity in the EU15 and candidate regions. DOCT 03C07. A. Mora, E. Vayá, J. Suriñach. Agreement with the European Comission, EFN project.

·         EFN Report on the Euro-Area Outlook. Autum 2002. DOCT 02C22. Report elaborated by the European Forecasting Network. Agreement with the European Comission, EFN project.

·         EFN Report on the Euro-Area Outlook. Spring 2002. DOCT 02C06. Report elaborated by the European Forecasting Network. Agreement with the European Comission, EFN project.

 

More information about this project

 

 

Besides in this field, it is very important to comment that in December 2002,  AQR make an agreement with Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs of the European Community, to study forecasting models: “Forecasting models currently applied to indicators computed on the basis of survey results”.

 

 

·         Forecasting models applied to indicators computed on the basis of surveys results. May 2003, Interim Report. DOCT 03C13. Artís, M.; Suriñach, J.; Clar, M.; Claveria, O.; Duque, J.C.; Moreno R.;  Pons, E.; Ramos, R.

 

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