Research Group
in Analytic Philosophy

Outline of a Causal Theory of Chance

    Márton Gömöri (Institute of Philosophy, Hungarian Academy of Sciences)

Date: 26 February 2020

Time: 15:00

Place: TAB


There is wide disagreement in the philosophy of science/metaphysics literature about the proper interpretation of the notion of probability, and whether it is even possible to provide a satisfactory one. In this talk I will attempt to offer a remedy for this disagreement: the reason why we are lacking a sound definition of probability is because in fact we need no such definition—probability is a dispensable conception. In arguing for this thesis I will show how a “chancy” setup can be characterized in purely causal terms, and how the only relevant “probabilistic” phenomena, stable relative frequencies, can be explained on the basis of the Principle of the Common Cause—without ever invoking the notion of probability.