Tim gave a seminar on «Modeling and forecasting mortality with economic growth: a multi-population approach». He reviewed the existing literature on mortality modeling of multiple populations, which focuses mainly on extrapolating the past mortality trends and summarizes these trends by one or more common latent factors. In his paper, they propose a multi-population stochastic mortality model which utilizes the explanatory power of economic growth. In particular, they extend the Li and Lee model by including economic growth, represented by the real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, to capture the common mortality trend for a group of populations with similar socioeconomic conditions. They find that their proposed model provides a better in-sample fit and an out-of-sample forecast performance. Moreover, it generates lower (higher) forecasted period life expectancy for countries with high (low) GDP than the Li and Lee (2005) model. This talk is based on joint work with Hong Li (Nankai University).
Prof. Tim Boonen, University of Amsterdam visits Riskcenter