Crecimiento del sector productivo cubano. Análisis de sus determinantes y restricciones estructurales

Juan Carlos Palacios Cívico

December 5, 2013

Mª Teresa Virgili

This study attempts to analyse the growth of Cuba’s production sector and to identify the main determinants and constraints that existed during a period when tighter restrictions on trade and financial activity forced the country to reorient its economic model and its position in the world economy. This analysis includes an exploration of the institutional dimension of the gross domestic product (GDP). The model, variables and methodology used for this purpose have all been adapted to the particular features and specificities of the Cuban economy. The results lead to conclude that the productive Cuban sector has been simultaneously determined and restricted by supply and demand factors. From one side, a very centralized regulatory framework has limited the efficiency gains in the productive Cuban sector. From other side, the lack of foreign currency has restricted the Cuban GDP growth in the long term. The interaction between both restrictions recommends to explain the GDP growth of the Cuban productive sector through a simultaneous equations model.

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