{"id":3313,"date":"2026-03-03T07:49:27","date_gmt":"2026-03-03T07:49:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ub.edu\/beat\/?p=3313"},"modified":"2026-04-28T05:46:21","modified_gmt":"2026-04-28T05:46:21","slug":"que-son-las-balanzas-fiscales-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ub.edu\/beat\/que-son-las-balanzas-fiscales-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Structural Change, Land Use and Urban Expansion"},"content":{"rendered":"[vc_row type=”in_container” full_screen_row_position=”middle” scene_position=”center” text_color=”dark” text_align=”left” overlay_strength=”0.3″][vc_column column_padding=”no-extra-padding” column_padding_position=”all” background_color_opacity=”1″ background_hover_color_opacity=”1″ column_shadow=”none” width=”1\/1″ tablet_text_alignment=”default” phone_text_alignment=”default” column_border_width=”none” column_border_style=”solid”][vc_column_text]Structural\u00a0Change,\u00a0Land\u00a0Use\u00a0and\u00a0Urban\u00a0Expansion<\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

By\u00a0Marc\u00a0Teignier\u00a0Baqu\u00e9<\/a>\u00a0(wtih\u00a0Nicolas\u00a0Coeurdacier\u00a0and Florian Oswald)\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Since the early years of the Industrial Revolution, populations have migrated massively from rural areas to cities. This widespread phenomenon of urbanization was accompanied by the reallocation of workers from the agricultural sector to manufacturing and services, a process known as structural change. How do cities grow when this structural change occurs? Our article Structural Change, Land Use and Urban Expansion, recently published in the prestigious journal Review of Economic Studies, examines the relationship between two of the main economic transformations of recent centuries\u2014the transition away from agriculture and the rise of urbanization.<\/span><\/p>\n

From the mid-19th century to the present<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

First, we document new stylized facts about land use and urban expansion in France since the mid-19th century. Using historical maps and satellite data for more recent periods, we show the long-run decline in the density of French cities: during this period, the population of major cities increased nearly fourfold, while their surface area expanded by a factor of 30. As a result, average urban density fell significantly\u2014by roughly a factor of 8.<\/span><\/p>\n

More specifically, between 1870 and 1950, average density declined by about a factor of 3, and then decreased by another factor of about 2.5 until 1975. The thirty years following World War II were characterized in France by rapid structural change and intense rural exodus. As structural change slowed in recent decades, average urban density has hardly declined further.<\/span><\/p>\n

Using new cross-sectional data on local agricultural land values, we also show that in recent times, cities surrounded by more expensive agricultural land are denser. This confirms that the opportunity cost of building on the urban fringe plays an important role in urban expansion.<\/span><\/p>\n

Figura 1: La ciudad de Reims en 1866 y en 2015<\/span><\/span>[\/vc_column_text][nectar_image_comparison image_url=”3451″ image_2_url=”3452″][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row type=”in_container” full_screen_row_position=”middle” scene_position=”center” text_color=”dark” text_align=”left” overlay_strength=”0.3″][vc_column column_padding=”no-extra-padding” column_padding_position=”all” background_color_opacity=”1″ background_hover_color_opacity=”1″ column_shadow=”none” width=”1\/1″ tablet_text_alignment=”default” phone_text_alignment=”default” column_border_width=”none” column_border_style=”solid”]

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Elements of the theory<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Our paper shows that the persistent decline in density, despite ongoing urbanization, can be explained by standard theories of structural change with non-homothetic preferences, extended to include endogenous land use\u2014where land can be allocated either to agriculture or to urban housing.<\/span><\/p>\n

In our multi-sector general equilibrium model with endogenous land use and multiple cities\/regions differing in productivity, the price of agricultural land at the urban fringe determines the opportunity cost of urban expansion. Land supply is fixed and its use is rival: it can be used either for agriculture or for housing.<\/span><\/p>\n

Following the traditional monocentric city model, urban land use arises endogenously around given city centers due to commuting costs. Urban land is more densely populated than rural land, and the urban fringe corresponds to the longest commuting distance undertaken by a worker producing urban goods. Due to commuting frictions, urban workers also earn higher wages than rural workers. Finally, land rents at the urban fringe must equalize across uses, with the marginal productivity of land in agriculture determining the opportunity cost of expanding urban land.<\/span><\/p>\n

When agricultural productivity is low, agricultural goods and farmland are expensive. High agricultural land values make cities initially small and very dense, as households cannot afford large homes.<\/span><\/p>\n

As productivity increases, workers move from rural areas to cities, freeing up agricultural land. With the decline in land values at the urban fringe relative to income, households\u2014now richer\u2014can afford larger homes, and cities expand rapidly in area. Alongside the reallocation of workers across sectors, land is also reallocated from agricultural to urban uses. In France, since 1840, about 15% of the territory has shifted from agricultural to other uses.<\/span><\/p>\n

Main contributions<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Our theory simultaneously explains the reallocation of labor away from agriculture and the decline in average urban density, providing a new mechanism for urban expansion and suburbanization. This complements the traditional view in urban economics that cities expanded mainly due to improvements in transportation technologies, which allowed people to live farther from their workplaces.<\/span><\/p>\n

Our framework also generates new predictions about the historical evolution of land values. The value of agricultural land as a share of income\u2014initially high due to subsistence needs\u2014declines over time as structural change progresses, while urban land values rise significantly.<\/span><\/p>\n

Despite increasing housing demand, rapid urban expansion initially limits the growth of land rents and housing prices. However, as the reallocation of labor and land away from agriculture slows, land values must adjust to prevent further expansion. At that point, land and housing prices begin to rise more rapidly. Thus, the model predicts relatively flat land and housing prices for decades followed by sharp increases\u2014closely matching the data observed in France and most advanced economies.<\/span><\/p>\n

A third contribution of our paper is to assess the quantitative ability of the spatial equilibrium model to reproduce land-use reallocation and land values in France since 1840. Using historical data, we measure sectoral production factors and productivity and calibrate the model to match France\u2019s structural transformation.<\/span><\/p>\n

We find that the model explains most of the decline in urban density, the shift in land values from rural to urban areas, and about half of the increase in housing prices. It also reproduces the empirical finding that cities surrounded by higher agricultural land values are denser.<\/span><\/p>\n

Importantly, without structural change, the model cannot reproduce the observed decline in urban density. This highlights the key role of agricultural productivity improvements in urban expansion. Faster commuting also plays a crucial role: without it, the predicted decline in density would be only about 30% of the baseline scenario.<\/span><\/p>\n

Implications for today<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Our framework can be used to study the aggregate effects of land-use regulations and urban planning policies. Such policies likely play a role in recent housing price dynamics, which our current model cannot fully capture, given that land-use policies restrict urban expansion at the extensive margin and increase demand for existing housing units.<\/span><\/p>\n

More broadly, our model can be used to revisit normative questions involving externalities. Urban density is central to agglomeration and congestion effects on productivity, while both density and urban expansion can generate environmental externalities such as pollution. By offering new insights into the determinants of urban expansion and density over time and space, our approach can help inform better policy design to address these externalities.<\/span><\/p>\n <\/div>[\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row type=”in_container” full_screen_row_position=”middle” scene_position=”center” text_color=”dark” text_align=”left” overlay_strength=”0.3″][vc_column column_padding=”no-extra-padding” column_padding_position=”all” background_color_opacity=”1″ background_hover_color_opacity=”1″ column_shadow=”none” width=”1\/1″ tablet_text_alignment=”default” phone_text_alignment=”default” column_border_width=”none” column_border_style=”solid”][\/vc_column][\/vc_row]\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

[vc_row type=”in_container” full_screen_row_position=”middle” scene_position=”center” text_color=”dark” text_align=”left” overlay_strength=”0.3″][vc_column column_padding=”no-extra-padding” column_padding_position=”all” background_color_opacity=”1″ background_hover_color_opacity=”1″ column_shadow=”none” width=”1\/1″ tablet_text_alignment=”default” phone_text_alignment=”default” column_border_width=”none” column_border_style=”solid”][vc_column_text]Structural\u00a0Change,\u00a0Land\u00a0Use\u00a0and\u00a0Urban\u00a0Expansion\u00a0 By\u00a0Marc\u00a0Teignier\u00a0Baqu\u00e9\u00a0(wtih\u00a0Nicolas\u00a0Coeurdacier\u00a0and Florian Oswald)\u00a0 Since the early years of the Industrial Revolution, populations have…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":3453,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[72],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3313","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-articles"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ub.edu\/beat\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3313","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ub.edu\/beat\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ub.edu\/beat\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ub.edu\/beat\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ub.edu\/beat\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3313"}],"version-history":[{"count":12,"href":"https:\/\/www.ub.edu\/beat\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3313\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3461,"href":"https:\/\/www.ub.edu\/beat\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3313\/revisions\/3461"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ub.edu\/beat\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3453"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ub.edu\/beat\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3313"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ub.edu\/beat\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3313"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ub.edu\/beat\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3313"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}