Detall

Seminari d'Estudiants del Doctorat en Història Econòmica

Nicola Visonà (Università degli Studi di Macerata), Agent-Based Models as Credible Counterfactuals for Economic History

Abstract

Economic History is a peculiar discipline. Emerging from the encounter of one of the oldest disciplines, History, with one of the newest, Economics, Economic History has never managed to mend this dichotomy fully. To this day, its practitioners are divided by their respective backgrounds: historians perform qualitative work, and economists specialize in quantitative methodologies. They collaborate, of course, but thus far no methodology has been able to offer a syncretic approach capable of bringing together the two souls of the discipline.

Agent-Based Models (ABMs) are a recent methodology, but it has been adopted by a variety of natural and social sciences. ABMs offer a flexible modelization technique that is compatible with the use of historical sources, as demonstrated by its ample use in Archeology. It is also able to help understand and reproduce economic phenomena, as shown by evolutionary and Schumpeterian economics.

The adoption of ABMs by economic historians could provide them with a methodology able to build credible virtual histories based on historical evidence, effectively allowing the use of counterfactuals for a better understanding of case studies and theories. This paper is dedicated to building the case for this approach.

Firstly, it presents a broad definition of Economic History, its history, its different methodologies, and the unresolved division still present between its practitioners. Section \ref{sec:ABMs} then dwells in the ABMs methodology, from its theoretical roots, to more technical details and up to its possible uses. It follows up with the use of ABMs by historical disciplines, with a focus on archaeology and business. It then focuses on counterfactuals, with a focus on their use in history and their relation to simulation. The last section is the core of the paper, presenting why standard economic modelization cannot be a credible counterfactual for economic history, and why ABMs can provide the discipline with credible counterfactuals.

Hora: 14:30 hores
Lloc: Híbrid. Aula 2019 (Edifici 696), Facultat d'Economia i Empresa i on line en aquest enllaç.