Bridging Knowledge and Attitudes: How Understanding Pension Systems Can Influence Migration Perceptions

A study named “Pay-as-they-get-in: attitudes toward migrants and pension systems”, published by our researcher Matteo Gamalerio along with Tito Boeri (Bocconi University), Massimo Morelli (Bocconi University) and Margherita Negri (Bocconi University), titled “Pay-as-they-get-in: Attitudes Toward Migrants and Pension Systems” explores how improving public knowledge about pay-as-you-go (PAYG) pension systems impacts attitudes toward immigration. Conducted by researchers focusing on Italy and Spain, the study examines whether understanding the role of demographic trends and PAYG mechanisms can lead to greater acceptance of migrants.

The study highlights the challenges posed by population aging in PAYG systems, which rely on current workers’ contributions to fund retirees. With old-age dependency ratios in Europe projected to double by 2050, these systems face sustainability risks. Migrants, who are generally younger, play a critical role in addressing this imbalance by contributing to the workforce and, consequently, the pension system. For instance, in 2017, migrants in Italy contributed a net €7 billion to social security.

Through an online experiment with individuals aged 40–85 in Italy and Spain, researchers tested whether providing information about PAYG systems—without explicitly mentioning immigration—could influence opinions. Participants viewed a short video explaining demographic challenges and the PAYG model’s dependency on worker contributions. Results showed that the intervention increased knowledge of PAYG systems across all political groups but had mixed effects on attitudes toward migrants.

Among participants who did not support anti-immigrant or populist parties, the intervention slightly improved willingness to accept migrants. However, no significant attitudinal shift occurred among supporters of anti-immigrant parties or undecided voters, despite their increased understanding of PAYG mechanisms. Researchers suggest this outcome may stem from distrust toward mainstream institutions rather than cognitive limitations.

he study contributes to the broader literature on information provision experiments by exploring whether indirect and politically neutral messages can be more effective than explicit pro-immigration narratives in fostering openness toward migrants. Our findings demonstrate the potential effectiveness of such indirect messaging in shifting attitudes toward migrants. However, they also highlight the significant challenges in altering deeply entrenched beliefs, particularly among individuals with strong ideological biases.

In conclusion, while enhancing understanding of pension systems and future demographic trends can positively shape attitudes toward migration in certain groups, broader strategies that address underlying issues such as distrust towards mainstream parties and institutions may be necessary to achieve more significant shifts in public opinion.

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