The weather impacts how we spend our time — and crime too

Nice and sunny out there? You’ve probably changed your plans to enjoy good weather, or cancelled them because of pouring rain.

In the study “Understanding the Link between Temperature and Crime”, our researcher François Cohen (Institut d’Economia de Barcelona) and Fidel Gonzalez (Sam Houston State University) analyse the implications that weather has on crime rates. They find substantial effects that can be attributed to changes in time use.

The research relies on more than 12 million daily crime records across 16 years (1997-2012) in Mexico. Hotter days are associated with significantly higher crime rates, particularly for violent crimes such as assaults, homicides, and sexual offenses.

When the weather is nice, people spend more time outside, which increases the likelihood of being a victim. Since more than 80 percent of violent crimes in Mexico happen outside the home, it is no coincidence that good weather can lead to more crime.

Alcohol also plays a role. Crimes committed by drunk offenders increase sharply with temperature. Around 29 percent of all the additional crimes that happen in good weather are committed by drunk offenders. This effect is also observable in health surveys and purchase information, which show an increase in alcohol consumption when the weather is hot.

Finally, not every warm day is the same. On weekends the weather has a stronger influence, whereas on weekdays people may not be able to go out. A sunny Monday stuck at work does not have the same effect on crime as a sunny Saturday.

It is common knowledge that more crime happens on warm days. The usual explanation is that people may lose their temper in the heat. This research shows that, even if impulsiveness might play a role, exposure to crime also explains the higher crime rate. This calls for extra vigilance, both for individuals and for the police. Since factors such as weather can cause substantial increases in crime by affecting time use, investment in policies aimed at reducing victimization risk and alcohol abuse could prove effective. Finally, in the context of global climate change, the findings underscore how rising temperatures could exacerbate social vulnerabilities and increase public safety risks.

Discover more about the UB School of Economics’ research! Explore the full list of our researchers and their latest research here.

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