Detall

Seminari d'Estudiants del Doctorat en Història Econòmica

Jackeline Raquel Velazco (Universitat de Barcelona), Essays on the changing roles of agriculture in the economic growth process: Contrasting theory and evidence, the Peruvian case

Abstract

The debate on the role of agriculture in the process of economic growth and development is currently experiencing renewed and vigorous interest. Climate change, the crisis of food prices during 2007-2008, the difficulties facing the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals, contexts of economic, financial and health crisis, are forcing international organizations, donors and scholars to rethink how agriculture can contribute in a more efficient way to solve these serious problems.

Throughout its history, Peru, being a small and open economy, has experienced cycles of crises and recoveries usually tied to international market fluctuations. A main feature of the Peruvian economy has been its primary-good exporter and manufactured-product importer profile. Development strategy models have oscillated from models of primary export diversification to industrialization to other non-traditional export promotion. Generally speaking, these models of development can be classified since 1950 as follows: a) primary export diversification from 1950-1962 and from 1975-1990, b) import substitution industrialization strategy during 1962-1975, and c) non-tradition export promotion since 1990.

Given this background, the aim of this thesis is to investigate to what extent agriculture has influenced economic growth and development options in Peru. Specifically, this thesis poses the following research question: What are the roles of agriculture in the process of economic growth in Peru? The hypothesis is that the role assigned to agriculture has been determined by the stage of development, implemented development strategies and the degree of openness of the economy throughout the process of economic development. Thus, from a long-term perspective, multiple roles of agriculture could be identified, in some cases it may be the central engine of accumulation and growth and in other settings can be a sector subordinated to the expansion of others. Moreover, in other cases there may be a feedback relationship between the sectors.

In order to answer the research question, the thesis is organized into four essays. The first of these develops the general context and stylized facts of Peruvian agriculture, the development strategies implemented since the mid-twentieth century, and the public policies that have shaped the sector's performance. The second essay offers a long-term perspective, from the beginning of the 20th century to the first decade of the 21st century, of the relationship between agricultural GDP and non-agricultural GDP (mining, industry and services). Through cointegration analysis, the nature of the relationship between these sectors is uncovered. The third essay focuses on the analysis of agricultural productivity. For this, the total factor productivity (TFP) is estimated for the period 1950-2010. Additionally, the determinants of TFP are analysed, exploring the influence of GDP per capita, trade openness, domestic terms of trade, human capital and a structural reform index. The fourth essay attempts to shed light on the factors that explain the agricultural boom identified since the 1990s. There are two dominant forms of production in Peruvian agriculture: export-oriented agro industrial complexes (which vertically integrate the field phase and factory/processing phase) and family farming. In order to disentangle how the implementation of a non-traditional export promotion model has moulded their microeconomic performance, theoretical models are developed for each production unit and empirical evidence based on secondary sources are discussed.

The fifth essay discusses how public policies have been oriented towards the expansion of non-traditional agricultural exports since the 1990s, thus being a State policy. In this scenario, the sector harmed or marginally served is agriculture for the domestic market (mainly family farming). This fact creates a tension in agrarian policy. The evidence discussed suggests that this outcome is due to the presence of mechanisms that reflect a capture of the State by agrarian economic elites, expressed by revolving doors and lobbying in Parliament. This result also shows the little political representation and limited support in Parliament of the various producers that make up agriculture for the domestic market.

The added value of the thesis is two-fold. It is the first time in Peruvian historiography that a study analyses the proposed topic from a long-term perspective and from an approach that integrates the nature of the relationship between economic sectors, agricultural productivity and the economic behaviour of production units. Furthermore, the political economy underlying the implementation of agrarian policies is studied and the groups that benefit or are marginalized are identified. And in doing so, different sources of information are used, such as time series, data from agricultural censuses and household surveys. The second contribution of the thesis refers to the microeconomic model of the fourth essay that captures the characteristics of agro industrial complexes and the evaluation made of the impact of sectoral policies aimed at developing and consolidating these production units.

Hora: 14:30 hores
Lloc: Híbrid. Aula 2019 (Edifici 696), Facultat d'Economia i Empresa i on line en aquest enllaç.