Helena Chuliá, member of the research group Riskcenter, has been awarded with a research grant from the Ramón Areces Foundation. The research project, entitled «Good and bad uncertainty propagation across the global economy» has been selected, jointly with 11 additional projects, from more than 80 proposals. The project will last for two years and will be financed with 36,000 euros. The awarding ceremony was held on October 27th, in the Ramón Areces Foundation building.


This research conducts a comprehensive examination of the effects of uncertainty shocks on real and financial markets across the global economy. Uncertainty has always been a primary concern in economics and, nowadays, it is commonly accepted that uncertainty must be measured, because it is closely related to many economic phenomena. Motivated by a recent branch of the economics and financial literature that seeks to shed new light on the asymmetric nature of uncertainty shocks, the study will differentiate between ‘bad’ uncertainty, related to bad news in the market (i.e. negative growth, financial losses, wars and destabilizing political events, etc.) and ‘good’ uncertainty related to good news in the market (i.e. unexpected technological innovation, financial gains, economic growth, etc.). The way in which uncertainty propagates internationally, across financial and real markets, crucially depends on such distinction. The study will consider real and financial markets, short and long term perspectives, and will stand on a sample of countries which includes both advanced and emerging economies.  The results of the project will be of interest for market participant and policy makers alike since it can provide a sound basis for designing portfolio allocation and hedging strategies, at the same time as highlighting market scenarios under which an actively guided monetary or macroprudential policy is likely to achieve the best outcomes in terms of preserving financial stability.