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Project "HOlistic analysis of the impact of heavy PrEcipitations and floods and their introduction in future scenarios. Application to adaptation and resilience strategies (HOPE)"



Title: HOlistic analysis of the impact of heavy PrEcipitations and floods and their introduction in future scenarios. Application to adaptation and resilience strategies (HOPE)

Principal Researcher: Maria del Carmen Llasat Botija

Funding entity: Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad

Project’s code: CGL2014-52571-R. Programa I+D+I Retos 2014. Convocatorias 2014. Proyectos de I+D “EXCELENCIA” y Proyectos de I+D+I “RETOS INVESTIGACIÓN”. Dirección General de Investigación Científica y Técnica. Subdirección General de Proyectos de Investigación

Duration: 2015-2017


On average, floods are the most important natural hazard in the world. Their mitigation and adaptation to the impact that climate change has on them is a priority in most government agendas (ie OECC, 2011). Recent reports from the IPCC (2012, 2014) still show significant uncertainty associated with the future development of precipitation extremes. Uncertainty is still higher when referring to floods and even more when we consider the interaction with society and the changes in vulnerability. As a consequence, there is now a call to treat flooding from a holistic perspective that integrates bottom-up (from impact and vulnerability) and top-down (from hazard) approaches in the same methodology. In this project we will work on the integration of both approaches in order to improve the estimates of the present and future impacts of floods and also for designing proposals for improving the resilience and adaptation strategies. To achieve this objective, we have gathered a multidisciplinary and international team with proven experience and with the support of specialized agencies that act as EPO's. In a first phase, the project will systematically collect hydrometeorological and socioeconomic information in different areas of interest and pilot basins and will identify the needs and priorities of the EPOs. In this regard, the project will continue the work already started, for some basins, within the HyMeX project. Second, the bottom-up approach will be used to provide an spatio-temporal analysis of the development of socio-economic indicators and thresholds of tolerance. This will also involve the selection of case studies to be analyzed in greater depth, including population response and the alerts chain. Third, the top-down perspective will follow the work developed in the French projects SCHADEX and EXTRAFLO, which focus on the statistical analysis of precipitation series in the selected watersheds, the establishment of distribution laws that allow to correlate the statistics of the series with other climatic variables, taking into account weather types and flow estimates. This will be done in the case studies for both now and the future scenarios. The scenarios will be constructed using the results of IPCC-AR5 and MEDCORDEX. They will be analyzed meteorologically and hydrologically on the case studies and then they will subsequently be integrated with the analysis of impacts and responsiveness. Finally, with the participation of the EPO's, a strategy to integrate the two approaches will be developed so that the uncertainties and weaknesses of each of the methodologies are minimized by enhancing their strengths. This will include, among other things, a comparison of the frequency distributions obtained from both approaches, the estimation of the future scenarios, the precipitation-flow-impacts integration for different socio-economic scenarios, and suggestions for improvement obtained from the feedback obtained in the case studies. The feedback obtained from the EPO's will help improve the integrated approach iteratively. Furthermore, this will also help to improve separately the top-down and bottom-up methodologies in order to more accurately adapt them to the real needs and adaptation strategies. Throughout the project, public participation tools will be developed to improve resilience.




Floods, precipitation, climatic change, socioeconomic impacts, mitigation, adaptation, resilience, Mediterranean

Tags: Investigacio Activitats


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